Today in Washington D. C. - Dec 17, 2009 - Home in Recess - Senate in Confusion

The House ended their session yesterday and is on Christmas break.  The Washington Post identified that "The House pushed through a last-minute flurry of legislation Wednesday, including a $636 billion Pentagon funding bill, a short-term rise in the nation's debt limit, and an extension of unemployment and health benefits for millions of jobless Americans. But Democrats put off until next year some of the thorniest political issues facing the chamber. While the House passed on party lines a largely symbolic $150 billion job-creation bill, that legislation has virtually no chance of seeing action in the Senate this year"

Although several Senators are in Copenhagen, the Senate reconvened and resumed consideration of the House amendment to H.R. 3326, the fiscal year 2010 Defense appropriations bill. The $636 billion bill includes $128 billion for war operations and a 3.4% military pay increase. Also included are extensions through February of COBRA subsidies, unemployment benefits, and the PATRIOT ACT.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid filed cloture on the Defense bill yesterday, and a cloture vote is expected Friday night, with final passage possible on Saturday. At that point, it’s expected the Senate will return to the Reid substitute amendment to H.R. 3590, the vehicle for Democrats’ health care reform bill. Sen. Harry Reid has indicated he will keep the Senate in session and may force the Senate vote on Christmas. Reid is really proving to be a heathen. There is no reason for this except fear on his part. The house is already in recess until the new year.

In a shame event by the Democrats yesterday, the Democrats broke the Senate rules to escape a forced reading of the 767-page Sanders amendment offering a single-payer health care system, 56 Democrats voted to table the motion from Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and John Thune (R-SD) to send the bill back to committee to delay the effective date of tax increases in the bill until the benefits begin.

As Democrats and the press struggle to create an aura of inevitability around the eventual passage of Senate Democrats’ health care reform bill, they seem to be missing two key ingredients: a bill and 60 certain votes.

The inevitability narrative shines through in the Los Angeles Times today: “New obstacles slowed Senate action on the healthcare bill Wednesday, as the hunt for supporters narrowed to a lone Democrat -- Ben Nelson of Nebraska -- and Republican delaying tactics brought debate to a temporary standstill. But Democratic leaders made progress toward bringing their party in line and remained hopeful that they would pass the bill through the Senate by Christmas -- just barely.” And Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said on the floor this morning, “We’re going to finish this health care bill before we leave here for the holidays.”

Yet, there remains no new bill to finish work on. This whole time, the Senate has been debating and amending the bill Reid produced in November, not whatever new deal he eventually comes up with. As Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said earlier today, “[T]hey want us to vote on a bill that no one outside the Majority Leader’s conference room has even seen. That’s right. The final bill we’ll vote on isn’t even the one we’ve had on the floor. It’s the deal Democrat leaders have been trying to work out in private. That’s what they intend to bring to the floor and force a vote on before Christmas. So this entire process is essentially a charade.”

But Democrats are also in the dark. Majority Whip Dick Durbin said recently, “I would say to the senator from Arizona, that I’m in the dark almost as much as he is. And I’m in the leadership.” Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT), one of the managers of the health bill, said, “I have not seen it myself.” And no less than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said to reporters just yesterday, “I haven’t seen the Senate bill. Have you? Nobody has seen it.”

The Democrats don't seem to have assurance of 60 votes. Tthere are a number who have not committed to vote for a final health care bill. Sen. Jim Webb wrote in an op-ed this week, “I have yet to decide whether i will support final passage of the bill.” Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) said she needs to see a CBO score first. However, Lincoln also said people could be forced to buy  health insurance or to pay a fine. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) said she needs to know that the bill will save more money for the government than it spends (which the current version does not). More liberal senators have also been coy about whether they will support the bill. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) said, “I am not making a judgment until I see the CBO numbers and that’s only the beginning.” Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL) gave a noncommittal speech on the Senate floor on Monday. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) was a bit more blunt, though, telling Fox Business’ Neil Cavuto yesterday, “As of this point I am not voting for the bill.”

For a bill that is supposedly on track to inexorable passage, Democrats still don’t appear to have 60 votes secured, and incredibly, they have no legislative language yet. Telling ordinary Americans outside of Washington, D.C. that the Senate is guaranteed to pass a bill that does not yet exist would certainly generate looks of incredulity. Skepticism is warranted here.

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