Gary Bauer, Contributing Author: In the past few days there has been a plethora of polling data indicating that Obama's support among key constituencies is cratering. Of course it's no coincidence that the polls come on the heels of a spate of terrible economic news. But I strongly suspect that there are other factors at play too. Let's take a look at some of the data. - Today's Washington Post reports on a new ABC News/Washington Post poll finding that Americans have largely lost faith in Barack Obama's economic judgment. When comparing their economic plans, Obama narrowly edges Mitt Romney 43% to 40% among registered voters. Among independent voters, 54% have a negative opinion of Obama's economic agenda. The Post notes that Obama enjoyed a 20-point lead over John McCain on the economy in pre-election polling in 2008.
- This is consistent with a Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania voters released yesterday. Four years ago Obama carried Pennsylvania by 10 points, but his lead has slipped to six points. And here is the danger for Obama and the opportunity for Mitt Romney: By an eight-point margin (49% to 41%) Pennsylvania voters think Romney would do a better job handling the economy.
- Last week, Gallup released data finding that Obama was down 10 points among Jewish voters compared to 2008 pre-election polling, getting just 64% support compared 74% in 2008. As one conservative blogger noted, "The only [Democrat] nominees who failed to reach 70 percent in the past 35 years were...Dukakis, Mondale, and Carter." All three, of course, lost.
- Yesterday Gallup reported that Obama has experienced significant declines among core subgroups of white voters. For example, for all the left's rhetoric about the GOP "war on women," Obama is down six points among white women. He's also down nine points among whites ages 18-29 (who frequently don't vote) and he's down six among seniors (who do vote).
No doubt the talking heads at MSNBC will try to blame this on racism. But even Spike Lee is giving up on the race card. In a recent GQ interview, Lee said, "It is not a lock that President Obama is getting a second term… I can't say to all the people that are unhappy with him that they're racist people. People ain't got jobs, people are hurting. So I don't care what color you are, if people are out of work, it's tough."
And while many pundits obsess about minority turnout, which can make the difference in a close race, Gallup notes the obvious:"Whites make up about three-quarters of all U.S. registered voters, and are therefore the most important racial or ethnic group in any election, at least mathematically. Even if Obama were to regain his 2008 level of support among blacks and improve his support somewhat among Hispanics, he could still lose if his support among whites slips any further." - So what about black voters? The results of a North Carolina poll by a left-leaning firm should have alarm bells ringing at the White House. Not only did the poll find Mitt Romney leading in the Tar Heel State, but he was also attracting 20% of the black vote while Obama got 76%. That was an 11-point drop in the past month.
What issue could have caused that kind of erosion in Obama's support among blacks in North Carolina? Perhaps Obama's embrace of men "marrying" other men isn't going over so well. - The same issue could well be negatively impacting Obama in Iowa too. The latest Rasmussen poll of likely Iowa voters finds Romney leading by one point -- 47% to 46%. That might not seem like much -- and it isn't -- but like Pennsylvania, Obama carried Iowa in 2008 by 10 points!
In 2010, Iowa voters made history by defeating three state Supreme Court justices who forced same-sex "marriage" on the state. Another pro-gay marriage justice will be on ballot with Obama this November.
Maybe. But this is no time for conservatives to get complacent. While these polls are encouraging, the election is still more than four months away. So much can change between now and then.
It's difficult to remember now, but the McCain/Palin ticket was up 10-points in early September. Then the financial crash hit, and Obama's message of "hope and change" galvanized the country.
Hope and change could galvanize the country once again. If it does, Obama will be taking a one-way flight back to Chicago come January 2013!
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Gary Bauer is is a conservative family values advocate and serves as president of American Values and chairman of the Campaign for Working Families and is a contributor to the ARRA News Service and readers may review past "End of Day" articles at Campaign for Working Families
Tags: Gary Bauer, Campaign for Working Families, 2012 campaign, Democrats, Obama Campaign, Hope and Change To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the ARRA News Service. Thanks!
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