SRLC Straw Poll - Additional Analysis

WRS, Political Insider Journal: The SRLC 2012 Presidential Straw Poll results demonstrates that organization matters. Both Romney and Paul were strongly prepared for the conference, buying tickets for supporters, hosting events, and printing literature, posters and stickers.

Unlike Romney, Palin spoke at the conference to a packed house. She clearly excited attendees, but Palin’s straw poll performance suffered significantly due to a lack of organization. Palin is also the only major contender who has parted way with most of her DC-based political consultants – the people who know how to move the numbers, even in a straw poll.

The final results gave Romney the win by a vote, but a closer look at the data shows Romney much stronger than a single-ballot win. You can see the full results with crosstabulations here (pdf).

Paul’s support was largely artificial and unrepresentative

• While Romney and Paul earned nearly identical support, Paul places dead-last as attendees’ second choice indicating that the votes that Ron Paul received were almost exclusively from people his organization bused in for the event.
• Evangelicals for Mitt also paid for tickets for nearly 200 people, but performed much better on the second choice ballot (14% to Paul’s 8%), earning a similar distribution to that of Palin and Gingrich. This means that Romney earned support from attendees not officially connected to his organization.
• The majority of Paul’s ballot support is primarily young men ages 35 or younger, as the Texas Congressman earns only token support among older attendees. This is another key data-point that show Paul’s inability to earn support from attendees that are representative of the primary electorate at-large.

Gingrich, Palin and Romney receive support from McCain voters

• Reiterating the point that Paul’s support is isolated and unrepresentative, those supporting McCain in 2008 supported Gingrich, Palin and Romney similarly.

Romney unable to carry his full support base

• Despite making a strong showing, Romney only earns the support of 54% of attendees who supported him in 2008.
• Paul carries an enormous 96% of those who supported him 2008.

Huckabee voters desert him, choosing Palin and Newt

• Huckabee only earns 20% of the votes from people supporting him 2008. But, he also didn’t have an organization lobbying for votes.

Palin and Newt earn votes from supporters of virtually all the 2008 candidates

• Palin and Gingrich earn similar support from nearly the full spectrum of supporters of 2008 candidates, while Romney draws strength from his original supporters in addition to McCain and Giuliani voters.

Gingrich is the top second choice of Palin and Romney supporters

• Newt bridges the gap between the first and third place positions in the straw poll as both Palin and Romney voters choose Gingrich as their top second choice.

• Reinforcing the bridge theory, Gingrich voters break equally for Palin and Romney as their second choice.

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Tags: SRLC, Southern Republican Leadership Conference, poll, poling results, analysis
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